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StarMine Analysis — Alphabet (GOOGL)
Overall Picture
This is a strongly bullish quantitative profile with a few notable valuation red flags. The model scores paint a stock with excellent momentum and financial health, but trading at a significant premium to its peers.
Bullish Models — Strengths
Price Momentum — 97/100 Exceptionally strong. GOOGL is in the top 3% of stocks globally for price momentum, meaning the trend is firmly in its favour. This is a high-conviction signal that institutional money is flowing in.
Analyst Revisions — 96/100 Analysts are aggressively upgrading their estimates. A score this high means the earnings revision trend is overwhelmingly positive — a classic leading indicator of further price strength.
Short Interest — 93/100 Very low short interest relative to peers. Bears have largely stepped aside, reducing the risk of selling pressure from that side of the market.
Credit Risk (Combined) — 93/100 | Structural — 94/100 GOOGL's balance sheet is fortress-like. The structural and combined credit scores near the top of the range confirm minimal default or financial distress risk — exactly what you'd expect from a cash-generative mega-cap.
Bearish Models — Weaknesses
Intrinsic Valuation — 16/100 A very low score. On a discounted cash flow basis, the market is pricing in a level of future growth that is difficult to justify — the stock looks meaningfully overvalued on absolute terms.
Relative Valuation — 16/100 Confirmed by the table below: GOOGL trades at a substantial premium across every metric vs industry medians:
| Metric | GOOGL (TTM) | Industry Median | Premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.40 | -0.06 | Extreme |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.60 | 4.74 | ~5x |
| EV/Sales | 11.09 | 2.50 | ~4.4x |
| P/B | 10.14 | 1.65 | ~6x |
| P/CF | 27.22 | 3.51 | ~7.8x |
| Div Yield | 0.21% | 1.10% | Well below peers |
Every single valuation multiple is dramatically above the industry median, placing GOOGL in the bottom 9–29% of stocks globally on value metrics. This is a growth stock priced to perfection.
M&A Target — 1/100 At this valuation and size, GOOGL is essentially untakeable. No surprise here, but worth noting for those considering event-driven angles.
Earnings Estimates
The estimates section is encouraging on the earnings quality front:
- The Smart Estimate (2.89) sits above the Mean Estimate (2.87) for Q2 Jun-2026, suggesting the more accurate analyst revisions are trending slightly positive — a mild positive surprise indicator backed by the 0.71% predicted surprise.
- For FY Dec-2026, EPS mean estimate of $14.18 with a Smart Estimate of $14.24 and a predicted surprise of 0.39% — again modestly positive.
- Revenue revisions are also trending up, with Mean Chg% of +2.85% for Q2 and +2.90% for the full year.
Summary Verdict
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Momentum | 🟢 Exceptional |
| Earnings Trend | 🟢 Strong & improving |
| Financial Health | 🟢 Rock solid |
| Absolute Valuation | 🔴 Significantly stretched |
| Relative Valuation | 🔴 Premium to peers on every metric |
| Takeover Appeal | 🔴 Negligible |
Bottom line: StarMine's models describe a high-quality compounder firing on all cylinders operationally, but the market knows it — and has priced it accordingly. For momentum and growth investors, the signals are green. For value-conscious investors, every valuation metric screams caution. The key risk is any earnings miss or guidance cut, which at these multiples could trigger a sharp de-rating.
