AAPL rebound rally still going strong after the AI volatility break signal! Top end of the Cloud can still be tested for support with old high the upside target! StarMine data highlight the bull and bear case in AAPL!
Apple Inc. (AAPL) – StarMine Data Analysis Report
This report provides a multi-factor quantitative analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL) based on the provided LSEG StarMine dashboard data as of July 2026.
StarMine scores operate on a percentile ranking from 1 to 100, where 100 represents the most bullish/favorable rank globally or within the sector, and 1 represents the least favorable.
1. StarMine Models Overview
The dashboard reveals a highly polarized profile for AAPL, showing exceptionally strong fundamental health and market sentiment, contrasted against severe overvaluation risks.
Bullish Indicators (Scores > 70) Bearish Indicators (Scores < 20)
--------------------------------- ---------------------------------
[97] Credit Risk - Combined [16] Value Momentum
[97] Credit Risk - Structural [15] Relative Valuation
[96] Short Interest [15] Insider Sentiment
[84] Smart Holdings [14] Intrinsic Valuation
[84] Earnings Quality [ 2] M&A Target Model
Key Takeaways:
Financial & Credit Health (Extremely Strong): Apple achieves near-perfect credit risk scores (97 Combined, 97 Structural, 81 Text Mining). This signals negligible risk of default, backed by an incredibly robust balance sheet and cash generation capabilities.
Earnings Quality & Institutional Backing (High): An Earnings Quality score of 84 suggests that Apple’s reported earnings are driven by sustainable, operational cash flows rather than accounting anomalies. Institutional "Smart Holdings" remain heavily committed (Score: 84).
Short Interest Sentiment (Very Bullish): A Short Interest score of 96 indicates that very few market participants are willing to bet against the stock, reflecting massive market confidence.
Valuation & Insider Alignment (Severely Bearish): Apple’s valuation models are deeply depressed (Intrinsic Valuation: 14, Relative Valuation: 15), indicating the stock is trading at a massive premium. Insiders are not buying (Score: 15), and the stock is highly unlikely to be an M&A target (Score: 2).
2. Relative Valuation Analysis
The Relative Valuation table compares AAPL against its global industry peers across multiple key multiples over trailing and forward timelines.
| Metric | Global Rank | AAPL (TTM) | Industry Median (TTM) | AAPL (Forward Next 12M) | Industry Median (Forward Next 12M) |
| P/E | 25 | 34.79 | -0.01 | 30.96 | 12.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20 | 26.58 | 8.35 | 23.48 | 8.00 |
| Div Yield | 23 | 0.36% | 0.98% | 0.37% | 1.02% |
| EV/Sales | 12 | 9.38 | 1.63 | 8.25 | 1.45 |
| P/CF | 24 | 31.60 | 4.27 | 28.02 | 15.03 |
| P/B | 3 | 40.55 | 2.28 | 30.17 | 4.22 |
Key Takeaways:
Severe Premium Across All Multiples: Apple is trading at multiples significantly higher than its industry median. Its TTM P/E ratio of 34.79x dwarfs the industry median, and its EV/Sales (9.38x) is over 5 times the sector baseline.
The Price-to-Book (P/B) Extreme: With a global rank of 3, Apple's P/B ratio stands at a staggering 40.55x TTM compared to the industry median of 2.28x. This reflects Apple’s asset-light, high-return-on-equity business model, but highlights extreme premium pricing.
Forward Compression: Multiples do compress slightly looking out 12 months (e.g., Forward P/E drops to 30.96x), indicating expected growth, but they remain highly elevated compared to peer averages.
3. Analyst Estimates & Revisions
The Estimates section provides insight into analyst expectations for the upcoming quarter (QTR Jun-2026) and the full fiscal year (FY Sep-2026).
QTR Jun-2026 Expectations:
Mean EPS Estimate: 1.89 | Smart Estimate: 1.91 (Predicted Surprise: +0.67%)
Mean Revenue Estimate: 108.58B | Smart Estimate: 108.71B (Predicted Surprise: +0.12%)
Guidance Range: 107.20B – 110.02B
FY Sep-2026 Expectations:
Mean EPS Estimate: 8.77 | Smart Estimate: 8.80 (Predicted Surprise: +0.35%)
Mean Revenue Estimate: 477.43B | Smart Estimate: 478.46B (Predicted Surprise: +0.22%)
Key Takeaways:
Positive SmartEstimate Surprises: StarMine’s proprietary SmartEstimate (which places higher weight on top-performing analysts and the most recent revisions) is higher than the consensus Mean Estimate across the board.
Imminent Beat Likely: The positive Predicted Surprise for QTR Jun-2026 (+0.67% for EPS) indicates a strong statistical probability that Apple will beat consensus earnings expectations in its upcoming release.
Stable Momentum: Growth revisions are relatively flat but slightly positive (
Mean Chg %for FY is +0.04% for EPS and +0.07% for Revenue), proving that Wall Street is maintaining stable, bullish outlooks for Apple's bottom line.
Summary Investment Thesis
Apple Inc. presents a classic "High-Quality, High-Price" profile.
Verdict: The company boasts rock-solid credit metrics, exceptionally clean earnings quality, institutional commitment, and positive revision momentum going into the June 2026 quarterly results. However, the stock is trading at historically stretched valuation percentiles relative to its industry peers. Investors are paying a massive premium for Apple’s safety, ecosystem, and predictable cash flows.
