Tuesday, 10 February 2026

$HOOD Robin Hood Markets: Rebounding from weekly Cloud Chart support zones! AI Volatility Breakout signal active as well!

 $HOOD Robin Hood Markets: Rebounding from weekly Cloud Chart support zones! AI Volatility Breakout signal active as well! 



Big picture

StarMine is saying HOOD’s fundamentals are improving fast — but the stock is already priced for a lot of that improvement.

So this is earnings momentum vs valuation gravity.

🟢 What StarMine really likes

These are meaningful signals:

Analyst Revisions – 99

This is the headline.

  • Analysts are aggressively raising estimates

  • Both quarterly and full-year EPS are moving up

  • This is usually the earliest institutional buy signal

👉 When revisions hit the high 90s, funds pay attention.

Smart Holdings – 74

  • Institutions are adding, not trimming

  • Not euphoric yet, but clearly supportive

  • Suggests the rally is being underwritten, not just retail-driven

Credit Risk – Smart Ratios (81)

  • Balance sheet metrics are improving

  • Profitability + cash generation are stabilizing

  • StarMine sees falling financial stress

Important for HOOD, given its past “unprofitable fintech” label.

🔴 Where StarMine is pushing back

Intrinsic Valuation – 11

This is harsh.

  • StarMine’s normalized cash flow model says HOOD is well ahead of intrinsic value

  • Growth expectations are doing all the work

Relative Valuation – 11

The table explains why:

MetricHOODIndustry
P/E (NTM)~33x~0–1x
EV/Sales (NTM)~14x~3x
P/B~7.6x~3.0x
Dividend0%~1.5%

This is premium fintech pricing, not brokerage pricing.

Credit Risk – Structural (18)

  • Business model still sensitive to:

    • Trading volumes

    • Market sentiment

  • Structural risk hasn’t disappeared, even if near-term metrics look better

Combined Alpha Model – 30

This is StarMine blending everything together:

  • Revisions ✔️

  • Institutional flow ✔️

  • Valuation ❌

  • Structural risk ❌

Net result: below-average forward alpha from here, statistically.

📊 Estimates: what’s driving the revisions

QTR Dec-2025

  • EPS: 0.63 → 0.64

  • EPS change: +4.4%

  • Predicted surprise: ~2.2%

FY Dec-2025

  • EPS: ~2.08 → 2.10

  • Revisions still positive, but slowing

👉 Key insight:

Revisions are strong now, but momentum usually peaks before fundamentals do.

How to read this correctly

StarMine is not bearish on the business.
It is cautious on forward stock returns at this price.

This is the difference between:

  • “Company improving” ✅

  • “Stock attractive from here” ❌

Practical takeaway by style

Momentum / earnings traders

  • StarMine supports staying involved while revisions stay elevated

  • Watch closely for:

    • Revision score rolling over from 90s → 70s

    • Any valuation narrative cracks

Swing / medium-term

  • Risk/reward is tightening

  • HOOD usually needs continued upside surprises to justify multiples

Long-term investors

  • StarMine does not support chasing here

  • Better entries usually come after:

    • Volume normalization

    • Or a broader market pullback

One-line StarMine verdict

HOOD = improving business, expensive stock, revisions doing the heavy lifting.

Posted by at No comments:

$GLW Corning: Powering higher after AI Volatility Breakout signals and Cloud Chart signals! Revised updated trailing top now at 120 zone!

 $GLW Corning: Powering higher after AI Volatility Breakout signals and Cloud Chart signals! Revised updated trailing stop now at 120 zone! Bit extended now so looking out for a consolidation post the climatic rally!

  
























Big picture 

StarMine says GLW is a momentum-led rally sitting on expensive fundamentals.

In plain English:

The stock is moving now, but valuation and longer-term alpha signals are flashing caution.

🟢 Why StarMine is bullish right now

These are strong, not subtle signals:

Price Momentum – 91

  • GLW is firmly in an uptrend.

  • This usually reflects:

    • Better fiber / demand sentiment

    • Improving macro expectations

  • StarMine momentum scores this high tend to be late-cycle, not early

Short Interest – 91

  • Shorts are backing off.

  • That removes downside pressure and can extend rallies.

Credit Risk (Text Mining 97 / Combined 79)

  • Filings + language analysis look healthy

  • Balance sheet stress is not a concern

  • Confirms this is not a distressed rally

👉 Translation: The move is real, not a junk bounce.

🔴 Why StarMine is skeptical under the surface

This is where it gets important.

Intrinsic Valuation – 11

This is brutal.

  • Even adjusted for the cycle, StarMine thinks GLW is over-earning vs normalized value

Relative Valuation – 16

And the table shows why:

MetricGLWIndustry
P/E (NTM)41.921.5
EV/EBITDA20.812.5
EV/Sales6.02.4
P/B8.53.5

That’s not “a little expensive” — that’s software-like pricing for an industrial / materials company.

Insider – 3

  • Insiders are not buying into this rally

  • StarMine treats this as a strong caution flag

Combined Alpha Model – 30

  • When StarMine blends everything together:

    • Momentum ✔️

    • Valuation ❌

    • Insider ❌

  • Net result: below-average forward alpha

📊 Estimates: what the market is betting on

Near-term (QTR Mar-2026)

  • EPS: 0.68

  • Guidance: 0.66–0.70

  • Mean EPS change: +3.18%

This supports momentum — expectations are inching higher.

Full-year (FY Dec-2026)

  • EPS revisions: slightly negative

  • Revenue growth: modest

👉 This mismatch matters:

Short-term optimism, long-term caution

How to interpret this correctly

StarMine is not saying “sell immediately.”
It’s saying:

“This is a momentum trade, not a valuation-supported investment.”

Practical takeaway by investor type

Short-term / momentum traders

  • StarMine supports staying with the trend

  • But this is late-stage momentum

  • Watch for:

    • Momentum score rolling over

    • Earnings revision flattening

Medium-term investors

  • Risk/reward is deteriorating

  • Any disappointment → valuation compression risk is real

Long-term holders

  • StarMine does not support adding here

  • This is not a compounder setup like MSFT

  • Better entries usually come after demand resets

One-line StarMine verdict

GLW = strong tape, weak valuation, fragile upside.




Posted by at No comments:

NASDAQ 100 Fut (Mar′26) NQCV1 Cloud Chart trading review

 NASDAQ 100 Fut (Mar′26) NQCV1 Cloud Chart trading review of the Futures,... https://youtu.be/dYHGJ1xLbjo?si=Dt6oSeKj7Hn8XeZS via @YouTube

Posted by at No comments:

Xetra Dax Futures: Fighting Cloud Chart resistance on 4H, with rebound potential at the front end of the Cloud!

 Xetra Dax Futures: Fighting Cloud Chart resistance on 4H, with rebound potential at the front end of the Cloud! Back in bullish zone since the FDXc1 is trading above the Cloud. Do expect the front end of the Cloud to be tested for support! AI volatility breakout signals offering swing trade opportunities! 




Posted by at No comments:

FTSE100 Index Futures still going strong after the AI generated Volatility Breakout signal! New trailing stop loss level 10200 zone!

 FTSE100 Index Futures still going strong after the AI generated Volatility Breakout signal! New trailing stop loss level 10200 zone! 














Posted by at No comments:

$BTC Bitcoin met the 68K/63K targets recently with downside risk towards the next two targets of 44K/42K !

 $BTC Bitcoin met the 68K/63K targets recently with downside risk towards the next two targets of 44K/42K  The rebound rally from the 60K support zone could have resistance at Cloud Span B resistance zone around 78K! BTC needs to trade back above the Cloud to be bullish! Trading swing trade rebounds below the Cloud is the current strategy.













Posted by at No comments:

Monday, 9 February 2026

$MSFT Rebound rally from old Cloud Chart support zones gaining momentum. SL & TL next upside targets when MSFT gets past old Cloud resistance zone now!

 $MSFT Rebound rally from old Cloud Chart support zones gaining momentum. Standard Line  & Turning Line of the Cloud Chart next upside targets when MSFT gets past old Cloud resistance zone now! 











StarMine data review: 

Based on the most recent financial data and StarMine quantitative models as of February 2026, Microsoft (MSFT) presents a complex profile: a "fundamentally elite" company currently facing a "momentum reset" following its latest earnings report.

The following review breaks down MSFT's performance through the core StarMine lenses.

1. Analyst Revisions (ARM) & SmartEstimates

StarMine’s SmartEstimates (which give more weight to the most accurate and recent analysts) were highly predictive for Microsoft's Q2 2026 results (reported Jan 28, 2026).

  • The Beat: MSFT reported a Non-GAAP EPS of $4.14, beating the consensus of $3.93. This validated StarMine’s "Predicted Surprise" signals, which often flag MSFT for positive revisions.

  • The Outlook: Despite the beat, the ARM score has softened slightly because, while revenue guidance for Q3 ($80.65B–$81.75B) remains strong, it did not significantly exceed high-end analyst expectations, leading to some "stale" estimates being revised downward.

2. Valuation: Intrinsic vs. Relative

StarMine differentiates between Relative Valuation (RV) (how it trades vs. peers) and Intrinsic Valuation (IV) (based on forward cash flows).

  • Intrinsic Value: MSFT continues to score highly here. With Microsoft Cloud (Azure) now exceeding a $50 billion quarterly run rate, the StarMine IV model suggests the company’s long-term cash flow generation remains robust, even with massive $37.5 billion quarterly CapEx on AI infrastructure.

  • Relative Value: The score is lower here. At a P/E ratio of approximately 27x, MSFT is "cheaper" than it was in late 2025, but it still trades at a significant premium to the broader software sector, which StarMine flags as a potential headwind if AI growth doesn't accelerate.

3. Momentum: Price vs. Value

This is currently the most volatile part of the MSFT profile.

  • Price Momentum: Following the Jan 28 earnings report, the stock saw a ~10% post-market dip. This has pushed the Price Momentum score into the bottom half of its 52-week range.

  • Value Momentum (Val-Mo): Interestingly, the StarMine Val-Mo model may actually see this as a "buy the dip" opportunity. Because the fundamental earnings (Value) improved while the price fell (Momentum), MSFT is moving into a quadrant that historically attracts "smart money" looking for high-quality entries.

4. Credit Risk & Smart Holdings

  • Structural Credit Risk: MSFT maintains one of the highest possible scores. Its massive cash reserves and 24% YoY EPS growth mean its default risk is negligible.

  • Smart Holdings: This model tracks where institutional "smart money" is moving. Currently, there is a slight rotation. While long-term institutions remain "overweight," the model shows some trimming by momentum-based funds concerned about the "tokens per watt per dollar" efficiency of recent AI investments.

Summary Table: StarMine Snapshots (Est. Feb 2026)

Model ComponentScore TrendKey Driver
SmartEstimatesHighConsistent history of beating EPS/Revenue targets.
Analyst RevisionsNeutralGuidance was "good enough" but not "blown out."
Price MomentumLowRecent 10% pullback following margin concerns.
Credit StrengthMax$81.3B revenue and elite balance sheet.

Note: The market's recent negative reaction was largely due to operating margins (45.1%) coming in slightly below the 45.5% consensus. StarMine models suggest this is a "Capex-heavy" phase rather than a fundamental decline in the business model.

Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)