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StarMine data rankings review:
Based on the StarMine data for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), there is a stark contrast between the stock’s operational momentum and its current market pricing. StarMine uses a 1-100 percentile ranking, where higher scores generally indicate a more favorable outlook for that specific metric.
Here is an analysis of the key segments:
1. Bullish Drivers: Momentum & Quality
Caterpillar is showing exceptionally strong "technical" and "quality" health.
Price Momentum (92): This indicates that CAT is in the top 8% of stocks globally for price performance. Investors are clearly piling in.
Short Interest (86): A high score here usually means there is very low short selling activity against the stock, or short sellers are covering positions, suggesting market confidence.
Earnings Quality (85): This suggests that CAT’s reported earnings are backed by strong cash flows and sustainable accounting practices, rather than "financial engineering."
Credit Risk (73/79): Both structural and combined credit scores are healthy, indicating a low probability of default and a strong balance sheet.
2. Bearish Warnings: Valuation Extremes
While the company is performing well, the StarMine models suggest you are paying a massive premium for it.
Intrinsic Valuation (12) & Relative Valuation (15): These very low scores indicate the stock is significantly overvalued compared to its historical norms and its peers.
M&A Target Model (2): CAT is almost certainly not an acquisition target. Its massive size and high valuation make it an unlikely candidate for a buyout.
3. Relative Valuation Deep Dive
The table reveals exactly why the valuation scores are so low. CAT is trading at a significant premium compared to the industry median across every single metric:
| Metric | CAT (Trailing 12M) | Industry Median | Analysis |
| P/E Ratio | 39.84 | 15.45 | More than double the industry average cost per dollar of profit. |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.62 | 10.75 | Significantly more expensive relative to operational earnings. |
| P/B Ratio | 17.78 | 2.58 | A global rank of 4; it is among the most expensive stocks in the world relative to its book value. |
| Div Yield | 0.74% | 1.09% | The yield is lower than the industry average, likely due to the stock price rising so fast. |
4. Estimates & Earnings Outlook
The "Smart Estimate" (which gives more weight to the most accurate analysts) is slightly more optimistic than the "Mean Estimate" for revenue.
QTR Jun-2026: Revenue is predicted to be $18.47B with a predicted surprise of 0.64%.
FY Dec-2026: Annual revenue is projected at $74.71B with a healthy EPS of $22.97.
The Verdict: The "Predicted Surprise" is very small (near 0%). This suggests that the market has already priced in the expected growth, leaving little room for a massive "beat and raise" catalyst to push the price even higher.
Summary
Caterpillar is a high-quality, high-momentum company that is currently trading at a luxury price. The data suggests a "priced for perfection" scenario: while the business is firing on all cylinders (Earnings Quality 85), the valuation (Relative Valuation 15) provides a very thin margin of safety for new investors.
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