CrowdStrike CRWD: Up by more than 57% since the AI buy signal! Strong really since CCX signal! Downside risk: Becoming too extended from the Cloud!

 CrowdStrike CRWD: Up by more than 57% since the AI buy signal! Strong really since CCX signal! Downside risk: Becoming too extended from the Cloud! 

CRWD up by more than 57% since the Artificial Intelligence buy signal. Up by more than 30% and 32%  since the Cloud Chart trade signals! Up by more than 25% since the Cloud Chart Cross buy signal! 

Recently broke out a  brief consolidation period. Cloud chart Turning Line and Standard Line are the new support zones to watch in this really. The top end of the front end of the Cloud a major support zone!

CRWD now becoming extended from the Cloud support zones so keep a close eye on risk management when the consolidation starts after the momentum rally!

Check the StarMine analysis for more fundamental valuations.

StarMine Quantitative Model Analysis – CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Date: May 28, 2025

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) shows a blend of technical strength and credit quality, but faces serious challenges in valuation, analyst sentiment, and institutional interest. Below is a breakdown of the StarMine model signals:

🔴 Negative Signals (Caution/Overvaluation)

• Combined Alpha (Score: 6) – Weak overall composite signal — potential underperformance expected.

• Value Momentum (Score: 4) – Poor combined score of valuation and earnings momentum.

• Analyst Revisions (Score: 14) – Analysts have been cutting earnings estimates, indicating falling expectations.

• Intrinsic Valuation (Score: 1) – Extremely overvalued on fundamental metrics.

• Relative Valuation (Score: 5) – Valuation is rich across key ratios.

• Smart Holdings (Score: 14) – Low conviction from institutions with strong historical performance.

• Insider (Score: 25) – Weak insider activity — few signs of internal confidence.

• Short Interest (Score: 42) – Slightly elevated short interest.

🟢 Positive Signals (Supportive Factors)

• Price Momentum (Score: 77) – CRWD has maintained strong price action, appealing to technical traders.

• Earnings Quality (Score: 88) – High-quality earnings, likely free from accounting manipulation.

• Credit Risk (Combined) (Score: 82) – Very strong balance sheet, with low default risk.

• Credit - Smart Ratios (Score: 81) – Financial ratios support strong credit fundamentals.

⚖️ Neutral or Mixed Signals

• Credit Risk - Structural (Score: 58) – Moderately strong on capital structure and leverage.

• Credit Risk - Text Mining (Score: 52) – No strong red flags from textual financial disclosures.

• M&A Target Model (Score: 58) – Medium likelihood of being an M&A target — not a driver currently.

📉 Relative Valuation Breakdown – CRWD vs. Industry

CRWD is significantly overvalued compared to its peers on all major valuation metrics:

• P/E: 125.39 (Industry Median: -0.01, Global Rank: 6)

• EV/EBITDA: 108.39 (Industry Median: 7.34, Global Rank: 4)

• EV/Sales: 27.04 (Industry Median: 3.06, Global Rank: 2)

• P/CF: 84.42 (Industry Median: 4.67, Global Rank: 8)

• P/B: 35.48 (Industry Median: 1.96, Global Rank: 2)

🧠 Overall Interpretation

CRWD presents a valuation-risk stock supported by quality earnings and strong technicals:
- Strong balance sheet and earnings quality support the business long-term.
- However, institutional interest is weak, and analyst sentiment is negative.
- Valuation multiples are extremely stretched, increasing downside risk if growth falters.

🔍 Recommendation Strategy

- 🚫 Value investors likely to avoid due to poor valuation scores.
- ✅ Momentum traders may be interested due to strong price action (Score: 77).
- ⚠️ Quality-focused investors see mixed signals — strong credit/earnings, but weak insider and analyst sentiment.
- ⚠️ Risk-averse investors should be cautious of momentum reversal.