TSLA: Up 60% since the AI generated volatility breakout buy signal! Up +44% since the Cloud Chart buy signal! Hitting upside targets as the rally gains momentum!

 TSLA: Up 60% since the AI generated volatility breakout buy signal! Up +44% since the Cloud Chart buy signal! Up +30% since the Cloud Cart turning line buy signal and the trend line breakout buy signal.

TSLA hit the 327/349 and 363 Cloud Chart targets. Next targets are 378/399/406! New key support zones in the current rally are 327/341 and the top end of the front end of the Cloud! 

Beware consolidation risk when TSLA become too extended from the top end Cloud Chart zones! 

TSLA: Hitting upside targets as the rally gains momentum! A pure momentum trade for now!

StarMine Quantitative Model Analysis – Tesla (TSLA)

Date: May 28, 2025

The StarMine models assess various factors across valuation, momentum, earnings quality, credit risk, and ownership. Tesla shows a highly mixed profile, with notable divergences between technical and fundamental signals.

🔴 Negative Signals (High Risk / Overvaluation)

• Combined Alpha Model (Score: 8) – Very weak alpha signal — StarMine's composite model suggests TSLA is likely to underperform.

• Value Momentum (Score: 5) – Weak value and earnings momentum — indicates overpricing and lack of positive fundamental shifts.

• Analyst Revisions (Score: 16) – Analysts are cutting EPS estimates — a bearish sign reflecting declining sentiment.

• Intrinsic Valuation (Score: 1) – Extremely overvalued based on discounted cash flow and fundamentals.

• Relative Valuation (Score: 5) – TSLA trades at extreme valuation multiples compared to peers (e.g., P/E 156 vs. industry median 2.3).

• Short Interest (Score: 39) – Some bearish positioning — not extreme, but noteworthy.

🟢 Positive Signals (Supportive Factors)

• Price Momentum (Score: 90) – Strong upward price momentum — suggests traders are driving TSLA higher.

• Insider (Score: 78) – Insiders have been buying or holding — a bullish sign of confidence.

• Smart Holdings (Score: 62) – Held by funds with good historical performance — indicates institutional support.

• Credit Risk (Combined) (Score: 65) – Moderate to low credit risk — stable balance sheet.

• Credit Smart Ratios (Score: 65) – Solid financial ratios, suggesting manageable debt levels.

⚖️ Neutral or Mixed Signals

• Earnings Quality (Score: 52) – Average accounting quality — neither aggressive nor conservative.

• Credit - Structural/Text Mining (Score: 38–45) – Weaker than average on qualitative credit signals.

• Event Prediction / M&A Model (Score: 32) – No active M&A signal or event catalyst detected.

📉 Relative Valuation Breakdown

Tesla is significantly overvalued based on traditional valuation metrics compared to its industry peers:

• P/E: 156.45 (Industry Median: 2.30, Global Rank: 6)

• EV/EBITDA: 68.39 (Industry Median: 4.23, Rank: 5)

• EV/Sales: 10.99 (Industry Median: 0.82, Rank: 5)

• P/CF: 81.39 (Industry Median: 3.10, Rank: 8)

• P/B: 14.62 (Industry Median: 0.83, Rank: 4)

🧠 Overall Interpretation

Tesla shows a classic growth-stock valuation trap profile:
- Technical traders may be attracted to strong price momentum (Score: 90) and insider confidence.
- Fundamental investors would be cautious due to extreme overvaluation and negative revisions.
- Credit and ownership signals are stable but not strong enough to offset valuation risks.

🔍 Recommendation Strategy

- ⚠️ Caution is advised for value or earnings-driven investors.
- ✅ Momentum traders may still find opportunity short-term.
- 📉 Watch for reversal in price momentum that could align with negative revisions and trigger sell-offs.