$MSFT StarMine data indicate an earnings surprise for MSFT. AI Volatility Breakout signals still active on MSFT!
Great rebound from Cloud Chart support on the Weekly Cloud.
Rebound rally on the Daily Cloud chart now getting closer to resistance zone at the bottom end of the Cloud. Need to see a breakout past this Cloud zone!
AI generated Volatility Breakout signals still going strong with a revised trailing stop.
Based on the StarMine data for January 28, 2026, Microsoft (MSFT) presents a highly stable, high-quality profile that balances strong analyst sentiment and elite credit safety against a lagging price momentum and premium valuation.
1. The Bullish Case: "Smart Money" & Credit Excellence
Microsoft stands out for its rock-solid financial health and high institutional confidence:
Credit Risk - Structural (99): This elite score indicates that MSFT has an extremely low risk of insolvency. The equity market views its long-term assets as being safely far above any "default point".
Credit Risk - Combined (97): Reflects a near-perfect credit profile across all metrics, making it one of the safest corporate borrowers globally.
Analyst Revisions (87): Analysts are actively raising their earnings and revenue estimates. The SmartEstimate of $4.00 for the December 2025 quarter is higher than the mean consensus of $3.97, resulting in a positive Predicted Surprise of 0.74%.
Smart Holdings (84): Indicates high "Smart Money" backing, meaning top-performing institutional managers are largely increasing or maintaining their positions.
2. The Bearish Case: Valuation & Market Performance
Despite its quality, MSFT is currently a "laggard" in terms of market sentiment and is considered expensive by historical standards:
Price Momentum (27): This is a weak score, showing that the stock has been underperforming its peers and the broader market recently. In the month leading up to January 23, 2026, MSFT shares returned -7.6% while the S&P 500 remained flat.
Relative Valuation (22): Microsoft is more expensive than 78% of global stocks.
EV/Sales (8): At 11.56, its revenue multiple is significantly higher than the industry median of 2.83.
P/B (13): Its Price-to-Book ratio of 9.84 is nearly 5.4x higher than the industry median.
Intrinsic Valuation (23): StarMine's proprietary valuation models suggest the stock is trading well above its fundamental fair value.
3. Estimated Performance (December 2025 & June 2026)
| Metric | QTR Dec-2025 (Forecast) | FY Jun-2026 (Forecast) | Takeaway |
| EPS SmartEstimate | $4.00 | $16.51 | Higher than mean estimates, suggesting a potential beat. |
| Revenue SmartEstimate | $80.50B | $328.08B | Reflects continued top-line growth. |
| Predicted Surprise | +0.74% (EPS) | +0.48% (EPS) | Positive "Smart Money" bias ahead of earnings. |
4. Comparison vs. Industry Medians (Forward 12M)
| Metric | MSFT (NTM) | Industry Median |
| Forward P/E | 26.96 | 13.95 |
| EV/Sales | 9.78 | 2.30 |
| P/CF (Cash Flow) | 20.11 | 15.76 |
Summary: MSFT is a "low-risk, high-quality" play with strong analyst backing and a positive earnings surprise prediction. However, it lacks the raw price momentum seen in companies like NVDA and trades at a significant premium to its industry.
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