Thursday, 29 May 2025
Wednesday, 28 May 2025
META: Still going strong after the AI buy signal (up +30%)! META hit a key Cloud Chart resistance zone, and now consolidating to setup for the rebound from front end Cloud Chart support zones! Danelfin AI score buy signal still in place!
META: Still going strong after the AI buy signal! META hit a key Cloud Chart resistance zone, and now consolidating to setup for the rebound from front end Cloud Chart support zones!
CrowdStrike CRWD: Up by more than 57% since the AI buy signal! Strong really since CCX signal! Downside risk: Becoming too extended from the Cloud!
CrowdStrike CRWD: Up by more than 57% since the AI buy signal! Strong really since CCX signal! Downside risk: Becoming too extended from the Cloud!
CRWD up by more than 57% since the Artificial Intelligence buy signal. Up by more than 30% and 32% since the Cloud Chart trade signals! Up by more than 25% since the Cloud Chart Cross buy signal!
Recently broke out a brief consolidation period. Cloud chart Turning Line and Standard Line are the new support zones to watch in this really. The top end of the front end of the Cloud a major support zone!
CRWD now becoming extended from the Cloud support zones so keep a close eye on risk management when the consolidation starts after the momentum rally!
Check the StarMine analysis for more fundamental valuations.
StarMine Quantitative Model Analysis –
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Date: May 28, 2025
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) shows a
blend of technical strength and credit quality, but faces serious challenges in
valuation, analyst sentiment, and institutional interest. Below is a breakdown
of the StarMine model signals:
🔴 Negative Signals (Caution/Overvaluation)
• Combined Alpha (Score: 6) – Weak overall
composite signal — potential underperformance expected.
• Value Momentum (Score: 4) – Poor combined
score of valuation and earnings momentum.
• Analyst Revisions (Score: 14) – Analysts
have been cutting earnings estimates, indicating falling expectations.
• Intrinsic Valuation (Score: 1) –
Extremely overvalued on fundamental metrics.
• Relative Valuation (Score: 5) – Valuation
is rich across key ratios.
• Smart Holdings (Score: 14) – Low
conviction from institutions with strong historical performance.
• Insider (Score: 25) – Weak insider
activity — few signs of internal confidence.
• Short Interest (Score: 42) – Slightly
elevated short interest.
🟢 Positive Signals (Supportive Factors)
• Price Momentum (Score: 77) – CRWD has
maintained strong price action, appealing to technical traders.
• Earnings Quality (Score: 88) –
High-quality earnings, likely free from accounting manipulation.
• Credit Risk (Combined) (Score: 82) – Very
strong balance sheet, with low default risk.
• Credit - Smart Ratios (Score: 81) –
Financial ratios support strong credit fundamentals.
⚖️ Neutral or Mixed Signals
• Credit Risk - Structural (Score: 58) –
Moderately strong on capital structure and leverage.
• Credit Risk - Text Mining (Score: 52) –
No strong red flags from textual financial disclosures.
• M&A Target Model (Score: 58) – Medium
likelihood of being an M&A target — not a driver currently.
📉 Relative Valuation Breakdown – CRWD vs. Industry
CRWD is significantly overvalued compared
to its peers on all major valuation metrics:
• P/E: 125.39 (Industry Median: -0.01,
Global Rank: 6)
• EV/EBITDA: 108.39 (Industry Median: 7.34,
Global Rank: 4)
• EV/Sales: 27.04 (Industry Median: 3.06,
Global Rank: 2)
• P/CF: 84.42 (Industry Median: 4.67,
Global Rank: 8)
• P/B: 35.48 (Industry Median: 1.96, Global
Rank: 2)
🧠 Overall Interpretation
CRWD presents a valuation-risk stock
supported by quality earnings and strong technicals:
- Strong balance sheet and earnings quality support the business long-term.
- However, institutional interest is weak, and analyst sentiment is negative.
- Valuation multiples are extremely stretched, increasing downside risk if
growth falters.
🔍 Recommendation Strategy
- 🚫 Value investors likely to avoid
due to poor valuation scores.
- ✅ Momentum traders may be interested due to strong price action (Score: 77).
- ⚠️ Quality-focused investors see mixed signals — strong credit/earnings, but
weak insider and analyst sentiment.
- ⚠️ Risk-averse investors should be cautious of momentum reversal.
TSLA: Up 60% since the AI generated volatility breakout buy signal! Up +44% since the Cloud Chart buy signal! Hitting upside targets as the rally gains momentum!
TSLA: Up 60% since the AI generated volatility breakout buy signal! Up +44% since the Cloud Chart buy signal! Up +30% since the Cloud Cart turning line buy signal and the trend line breakout buy signal.
TSLA hit the 327/349 and 363 Cloud Chart targets. Next targets are 378/399/406! New key support zones in the current rally are 327/341 and the top end of the front end of the Cloud!
Beware consolidation risk when TSLA become too extended from the top end Cloud Chart zones!
TSLA: Hitting upside targets as the rally gains momentum! A pure momentum trade for now!
StarMine Quantitative Model Analysis – Tesla
(TSLA)
Date: May 28, 2025
The StarMine models assess various factors
across valuation, momentum, earnings quality, credit risk, and ownership. Tesla
shows a highly mixed profile, with notable divergences between technical and
fundamental signals.
🔴 Negative Signals (High Risk / Overvaluation)
• Combined Alpha Model (Score: 8) – Very
weak alpha signal — StarMine's composite model suggests TSLA is likely to
underperform.
• Value Momentum (Score: 5) – Weak value
and earnings momentum — indicates overpricing and lack of positive fundamental
shifts.
• Analyst Revisions (Score: 16) – Analysts
are cutting EPS estimates — a bearish sign reflecting declining sentiment.
• Intrinsic Valuation (Score: 1) –
Extremely overvalued based on discounted cash flow and fundamentals.
• Relative Valuation (Score: 5) – TSLA
trades at extreme valuation multiples compared to peers (e.g., P/E 156 vs.
industry median 2.3).
• Short Interest (Score: 39) – Some bearish
positioning — not extreme, but noteworthy.
🟢 Positive Signals (Supportive Factors)
• Price Momentum (Score: 90) – Strong
upward price momentum — suggests traders are driving TSLA higher.
• Insider (Score: 78) – Insiders have been
buying or holding — a bullish sign of confidence.
• Smart Holdings (Score: 62) – Held by
funds with good historical performance — indicates institutional support.
• Credit Risk (Combined) (Score: 65) –
Moderate to low credit risk — stable balance sheet.
• Credit Smart Ratios (Score: 65) – Solid
financial ratios, suggesting manageable debt levels.
⚖️ Neutral or Mixed Signals
• Earnings Quality (Score: 52) – Average
accounting quality — neither aggressive nor conservative.
• Credit - Structural/Text Mining (Score:
38–45) – Weaker than average on qualitative credit signals.
• Event Prediction / M&A Model (Score:
32) – No active M&A signal or event catalyst detected.
📉 Relative Valuation Breakdown
Tesla is significantly overvalued based on
traditional valuation metrics compared to its industry peers:
• P/E: 156.45 (Industry Median: 2.30,
Global Rank: 6)
• EV/EBITDA: 68.39 (Industry Median: 4.23,
Rank: 5)
• EV/Sales: 10.99 (Industry Median: 0.82,
Rank: 5)
• P/CF: 81.39 (Industry Median: 3.10, Rank:
8)
• P/B: 14.62 (Industry Median: 0.83, Rank:
4)
🧠 Overall Interpretation
Tesla shows a classic growth-stock
valuation trap profile:
- Technical traders may be attracted to strong price momentum (Score: 90) and
insider confidence.
- Fundamental investors would be cautious due to extreme overvaluation and
negative revisions.
- Credit and ownership signals are stable but not strong enough to offset
valuation risks.
🔍 Recommendation Strategy
- ⚠️ Caution is advised for value or
earnings-driven investors.
- ✅ Momentum traders may still find opportunity short-term.
- 📉 Watch for reversal in price momentum that could align with negative
revisions and trigger sell-offs.