NVIDIA broke past Cloud Span A&B recently after rebounding from old Cloud Chart support zones! With price action above the Cloud, NVDA is back in bullish territory! Do expect the top of the Cloud to be tested for support! Still forming a large W bottom base around the Cloud! But so far so good with the rebound trades!
NVIDIA continues to demonstrate exceptional operational strength, driven by the "virtuous cycle of AI" and the massive roll out of its Blackwell architecture. While momentum and sentiment scores are near the top of the market, valuation models suggest the stock is trading at a significant premium, reflecting high expectations for future growth.
## StarMine Quantitative Model Analysis
The StarMine scores provide a percentile ranking (1-100) of NVDA against its global or regional peers.
1. Growth and Sentiment (Bullish Indicators)
Analyst Revisions Model (ARM): 92
Interpretation: NVDA ranks in the top 8% of companies for positive analyst sentiment. This high score is driven by frequent upward revisions to Earnings Per Share (EPS) and revenue estimates, signaling that sell-side analysts remain highly optimistic about Blackwell demand.
Price Momentum Model: 92
Interpretation: The stock continues to outperform roughly 92% of its peers in price performance. This indicates strong "trend-following" support from the market.
Short Interest Model: 93
Interpretation: A high score here is actually a bullish signal. It suggests very low levels of short interest relative to its peers; sophisticated investors are not betting against the stock, and the "cost to borrow" remains low.
2. Valuation (Bearish Indicators/Caution)
Intrinsic Valuation Model: 25
Interpretation: When using a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and projected earnings growth, the stock appears overvalued relative to its current price. This suggests the market is pricing in growth even more aggressive than standard long-term estimates.
Relative Valuation Model: 10
Interpretation: NVDA is more expensive than 90% of its peers based on traditional multiples (P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA). It is trading at a significant "AI premium."
3. Operational Health and Risk
Credit Risk Models (Structural & SmartRatios): 90+
Interpretation: NVDA maintains an elite credit profile. With a record $62.2 billion remaining in share repurchase authorizations and massive cash flows, the probability of default within the next 12 months is near zero.
Insider Filings Model: 1
Interpretation: This is a notably bearish signal from the model. A score of 1 indicates heavy insider selling relative to buying. In NVIDIA's case, this is often attributed to executive 10b5-1 selling plans (automated sales), but the model flags it as a lack of recent "buy" conviction from leadership at these price levels.
## Key Financial Performance (Fiscal Q3 2026)
| Metric | Result | Year-over-Year (YoY) |
| Total Revenue | $57.0 Billion | +62% |
| Data Center Revenue | $51.2 Billion | +66% |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 73.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Diluted EPS | $1.30 | +67% |
Analyst Note: The slight dip in gross margins is likely due to the initial ramp-up costs of the Blackwell systems, though margins are expected to recover to ~75% in the coming quarters.
## Conclusion
NVIDIA remains a "High Momentum, High Price" play. The StarMine data highlights a tug-of-war: analysts and price trends are incredibly bullish (Scores: 92+), but the valuation models suggest the stock is technically "expensive" (Scores: <25). The extreme low score in the Insider Model suggests that while the company's tech is "off the charts," its leaders are taking some chips off the table.
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