$STK Still going strong since the AI trade signals. Updated trailing stop loss around 390 zone!

 STK is very extended from the Cloud Chart zone and I do expect a consolidation at some point as this climatic rally needs to consolidate once the FOMO YOLO has cooled down! STK needs to form a new base in a consolidation phase before the next rally attempt! But so far so good, AI caught the rallies just in time!

Updated trailing stop loss around the 390 zone!  

StarMine Take: Momentum Is Real, Valuation Is the Risk

🔵 Factor Models: Powerful Signals, but Not Balanced

StarMine’s quant signals are strong, though more narrowly concentrated than what you’d see in a “perfect” setup.

Bullish factors

• Analyst Revisions: 100
  This is the headline. Analysts are consistently revising numbers up, and the most accurate forecasters are aligned with consensus. This strongly supports continued price strength.

• Price Momentum: 91
  The stock is trending decisively higher. StarMine momentum scores in the 90s often persist unless fundamentals break.

• Earnings Quality: 91
  Earnings are supported by cash flow and operating leverage—not accounting tricks. This matters a lot in a cyclical hardware name.

• Credit Risk (Structural): 71
  Balance-sheet stress is manageable. Leverage isn’t a near-term concern, which gives the equity room to ride the cycle.

Bearish factors

• Intrinsic Valuation: 23

• Relative Valuation: 15

• Insider Model: 3

• M&A Target Model: 14

These scores all say the same thing: STX is not cheap, not early, and not a takeover candidate. Insiders aren’t buying aggressively at these levels.

👉 Interpretation: This is a momentum + earnings story, not a valuation one.

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🟡 Valuation: Extremely Stretched vs Industry

Across almost every metric, STX screens as one of the most expensive stocks in its industry.

Trailing metrics

• P/E: 39.4 vs industry 9.8

• EV/EBITDA: 29.2 vs 6.3

• EV/Sales: 9.3 vs 0.4

• P/B: 205.7 vs 1.45 (rank 2 globally, bottom-tier)

Forward metrics improve—but remain elevated

• Forward P/E: 26.3 vs 11.4

• Forward EV/EBITDA: 19.3 vs 9.2

• Forward EV/Sales: 7.4 vs 0.37

Even assuming strong earnings growth, STX is priced at a significant premium to peers.

👉 Key risk: Any slowdown in HDD pricing, cloud capex, or hyperscaler demand could cause rapid multiple compression.

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🟢 Estimates & Earnings Outlook: Solid but Not Explosive

This is where STX differs from higher-conviction StarMine longs.

March 2026 quarter

• Smart EPS: 3.46 vs Mean: 3.45

• Predicted surprise: +0.3%

• Revenue growth YoY: +6.7%

• EPS growth YoY: +19%

FY June 2026

• Smart EPS: 12.97 vs Mean: 12.95

• Predicted surprise: +0.2%

• Revenue growth YoY: +4.5%

• EPS growth YoY: +12.6%

The Smart Estimate is essentially equal to consensus, meaning:

• Analysts broadly agree

• Upside surprise risk is low

• Execution needs to be clean just to justify the current price

Guidance is tight and already well-understood by the market.

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🧠 Big Picture Synthesis

For Seagate Technology (STX):

• Momentum & revisions = elite

• Earnings quality = strong

• Balance sheet = stable

• Valuation = very stretched

• Earnings surprise potential = minimal

🎯 Investment Takeaway

StarMine is flagging STX as a late-cycle momentum leader, not an early-cycle value or earnings-surprise play. The stock can continue to work as long as sentiment and demand remain intact, but the margin for error is thin.

This is the kind of setup that:

• Performs well in strong tape / risk-on environments

• Underperforms quickly if growth expectations wobble